Raila Odinga’s political career has always been full of ups and downs. His recent failure to secure the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship, followed by problems in his own party, has left many Kenyans asking: What’s next for Baba?
After losing the AUC bid, Raila returned to Kenya to find his party, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), in turmoil. Once a dominant force in Kenyan politics, ODM is now divided. The main issue? A controversial partnership with President William Ruto’s government. This unexpected alliance has confused supporters and caused disagreements within the party.
Party Dispute or Total Breakdown?
For years, ODM has been Raila’s political home—the platform that carried his vision and united millions of followers. But now, the party is more divided than ever. Some members believe working with Ruto is a smart move to stay politically relevant. Others see it as a betrayal of Raila’s lifelong fight for democracy and justice.
The big question is: Is this just a temporary disagreement, or is ODM breaking apart for good?
Is Raila Losing His Supporters?
Raila has always had strong support from ordinary Kenyans—small business owners, motorcycle taxi riders, and young people who saw him as their voice. But his decision to cooperate with Ruto, a longtime rival, has made many feel let down.
On social media, disappointed supporters are asking, “Is this the same Raila we believed in?” While some may see his actions as a smart political strategy, many feel he is moving away from the principles that made him “the People’s President.” To those who have stood by him for years, this shift feels more like a betrayal than a necessary political move.
What Are Raila’s Next Steps?
So, what options does Raila have now?
Option 1: Save ODM
He could try to bring ODM back together, but that would mean settling differences between members, regaining the trust of his supporters, and possibly ending ties with Ruto’s government. This won’t be easy—fixing ODM would be like putting together a broken vase while people are still throwing pieces at each other. On top of that, younger voters, who once supported him the most, are now unsure whether he still represents them.
Option 2: Start Something New
At 79, Raila has reinvented himself many times—going from activist to prime minister to opposition leader. He could now take a different path, focusing on regional diplomacy, mentoring young leaders, or even creating a new political movement outside ODM. But stepping away from ODM would mean letting others take control of the party he built.
Option 3: Focus on His Legacy
Raila’s place in Kenya’s history is already secure. He has played a major role in fighting for democracy and shaping the country’s constitution. Perhaps now is the time to step back from day-to-day politics and take on the role of a respected elder statesman. But is he really ready to retire, or does he have one more battle left in him?
The Bigger Picture
Kenya’s political landscape is changing. New leaders are stepping up, alliances are shifting, and younger voters are more focused on jobs and opportunities than old political rivalries. Raila must either adapt to this new reality or risk becoming irrelevant.
But one thing is clear: Baba has been counted out before—after election losses, prison time, and even exile—but he has always made a comeback. This time, though, the stakes are higher. His next decision won’t just affect his own legacy but could also shape the future of Kenyan politics.
So, what do you think? Can Raila find a new path, or is it time for a new generation to take over?
